Top 2’s Way Too Early Mock Draft

Welcome to the “wayyyyyy too early” version of the Top 2 Fantasy Football Mock Draft analysis. Matt and I performed a few mock drafts and settled on one to break down in terms of value and who went where. Mock drafts are the first step towards assembling the fantasy roster of a lifetime.

In this 3-part series, Matt and I will give extensive thoughts on how the draft board is shaping up. Mock draft season is among us, training camp has begun and it is now time to gear up for the NFL season. Lets take a look at way too early mock draft. This draft is a 10-team league with PPR scoring.

ROUND 1 PICK 1 

Eric: David Johnson

Matt: Antonio Brown

Why: David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell will be a hot topic leading up to your fantasy football draft. I was blessed with the 1st pick and decided Johnson is just a clear-cut stud and a safer choice overall. I had Bell last year and I know what he is capable of, but I lost to Johnson in the playoffs. This guy is an animal and should be the 1st guy off the board. He averaged 25 PPR points-per-game last season and never leaves the field. Le’Veon is a fine choice and you can go either way here, but Le’Veon has had injuries and suspensions that raise a lot of red flags. Johnson is the safe pick.

It’s a RB weak draft so it’s hard to not take one in the first round but with the top 3 off the board it was a no-brainer to take a WR. OBJ was a close second but Brown is consistent, and that’s why I took him.

Who followed Eric’s pick: Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham JR., Mike Evans, Jordy Nelson, LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon

Round 2 Pick 20

Eric: Amari Cooper

Matt: Rob Gronkowski

Why: The Raiders have a VERY explosive offense this year. Beastly running game, big O-line, two explosive wide receivers and a QB with a cannon. Amari Cooper, I believe, will officially make the leap from up and coming stud to one of the top 5 receivers in the league this year. If Gronk had been available, he would’ve been the pick but Matt ‘the mimic’ Hicks struck again.

Did I pick Gronk just because I knew Eric wanted him? Yes, yes i did.

Who went before Eric’s pick: Lamar Miller, Devonta Freeman, Jay Ajayi, AJ Green, TY Hilton, Jordan Howard, Rob Gronkowski, Demarco Murray, Leonard Fournette

Round 3 Pick 21

Eric: Alshon Jeffery

Matt: Michael Thomas

Why: There are some of you who would be saying ‘who in the right mind goes back-to-back early on receivers? There are so many good ones!’ Well, there are indeed plenty of receivers who are going to make an impact this year and you can find a very reliable starter in the late rounds. Alshon Jefferey is going to light it up for the Eagles this year. One year deal, QB is NOT Jay Cutler and Carson Wentz will only get better with time and experience. I think Jefferey has a big year for Philly and is a worthy 3rd round pick.

Thomas is a steal at this pick. I understand he’s unproven but he’s got a great situation in New Orleans, and if we know one thing about fantasy football it is that Drew Brees is an absolute gunslinger. I passed up on Hopkins and Thomas here because their QB situations are much less promising.

Who followed Eric’s pick: Dez Bryant, Todd Gurley, Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Demaryius Thomas, Jordan Reed, Doug Baldwin, Marshawn Lynch, Brandin Cooks

Round 4 Pick 40

Eric: Terrelle Pryor Sr.

Matt: Christian McCaffery

Why: Another wide receiver, are you crazy!? No, no I am not and Pryor will prove that. Listen, receivers who take one-year ‘prove-it’ type deals usually have incredible seasons. Pryor last season, while on the Cleveland Browns who might as well have paid Uncle Rico to play QB, exploded into a fantasy force to be reckoned with.  This year, with a much more capable Kirk Cousins throwing Pryor the ball, will be the next step towards superstardom for Pryor. It should be noted that Tom Brady went the pick before so this pick would have been the second of my back to backs had that opportunity presented itself.

I love this pick as well. McCaffery has great breakout potential. The 4th round is great value for him, especially if your league is PPR and/or a keeper league.

Who went before Eric’s pick: Keenan Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Jarvis Landry, Isaiah Crowell, Sammy Watkins, Christian McCaffrey, Allen Robinson, Tom Brady

Round 5 Pick 41

Eric: Greg Olsen

Matt: Carlos Hyde

Why: Here is a word of advice for anyone who plays fantasy football: if you don’t get Rob Gronkowski, then go the extra mile to get Greg Olsen. Olsen is the most consistent weapon coming from the tight end position and the key word is CONSISTENT. Gronk, even though I love the big lug, is injury prone. There is no ifs ands or buts about it. Jordan Reed, while nasty when on the field, is a walking concussion. Greg Olsen is more reliable than bacon and eggs. He’ll always get the job done and you’ll feel great knowing you can plug him into your lineup and expect at least a 10-15 point a game.

Hyde is a solid pick in the 5th round. He won’t win your league for you, but he will get carries and yards. This pick could be even better if Hyde does end up getting cut and finds himself in a dynamic offense.

Who went before Eric’s Pick: Martavis Bryant, Travis Kelce, Carlos Hyde, Mark Ingram, Bilal Powell, Golden Tate, Julian Edelman, Michael Crabtree, Ty Montgomery 

Round 6 Pick 60

Eric: Matt Ryan

Matt: Larry Fitzgerald

Why: Matty Ice had a heck of a season, capturing his first MVP and leading the Falcons to the Super Bowl. All of his weapons are in tact and ready to roll this season so he will continue to shine even with the exit of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Julio Jones will have another big season and the Falcons running back tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman give Ryan a diverse arsenal. He is reliable as long as he isn’t leading 28-3 in the biggest game of his life.

Like Hyde, Fitz is consistent, reliable, and steady. That’s what I want in my mid round picks. Save the risky moves for later in the draft.

Who went before Eric’s pick: Jamison Crowder, Davante Adams, Dalvin Cook, Danny Woodhead, Frank Gore, Emmanuel Sanders, Larry Fitzgerald, Spencer Ware, Tyreek Hill

Round 7 Pick 61

Eric: Joe Mixon

Matt: Andrew Luck

Why: This was my first true ‘leap of faith’ pick. I don’t like Jeremy Hill and I don’t think the Bengals do either. Giovanni Bernard is more of a scat back than a true workhorse. My guess is Mixon comes in, despite all of the off-the-field issues, and blows people away like Tyreek Hill did ins similar fashion last year with the Chiefs. I expect Mixon to start at some poing in the season and to contribute as a rookie. Gillislee going one pick after made me question my decision so I’ll be watching those two closely. I expect Gillislee to have a superb season in New England.

I understand the injury concerns here but any other season Luck isn’t around in the 7th round. He’s got top talent potential and I got great value on him here.

Who went after Eric’s pick: Mike Gillislee, DeSean Jackson, Andrew Luck, Pierre Garcon, Brandon Marshall, CJ Anderson, Stefon Diggs, Delanie Walker, Donte Moncrief

Round 8 Pick 80

Eric: Jimmy Graham

Matt: Kelvin Benjamin

Why: Can never have too many playmakers and that is what Jimmy Graham became once again last season for the Seahawks. Assuming this was no mirage, Graham will remain an integral part of the Seattle offense. With him and Olsen on board, it will also open the possibility later on to trade from my tight end depth.

Benjamin will benefit from the comeback season that I believe Cam Newton and the Panthers will have this year. It’s a bit of a risk but in the 8th round I’m okay with it.

Who went before Eric’s pick: Paul Perkins, Ameer Abdullah, Tyler Eifert, Theo Riddick, Mike Wallace, Kyle Rudolph, Kelvin Benjamin, LeGarrette Blount, Eddie Lacy

Round 9 Pick 81

Eric: Tevin Coleman

Matt: Matt Forte

Why: With a questionable rookie in Joe mixon being paired with David Johnson, I felt the need to invest in a proper back up who I believe in. I believe in Tevin Coleman. Him and Devonta Freeman were able to be very productive even while splitting carries in Atlanta last season. When you score as many points as Atlanta does, everyone on the offense will get to eat. Coleman should only continue to improve this season.

Don’t love this pick. I was eyeing Coleman and Peterson right before Forte went and didn’t love my other options. Robert Kelley may have been a better choice here.

Who went after Eric’s pick: Adrian Peterson, Eric Decker, Matt Forte, Rishard Matthews, Russell Wilson, Jordan Matthews, Adam Thielen, Willie Snead, Cam Newton

Round 10 Pick 100

Eric: Randall Cobb

Matt: Darren Sproles

Why: As we get into more ‘depth’ selections, it is important to remember where the possible pick plays. Randall Cobb plays in Green Bay where Aaron Rodgers is known to chuck the rock. I’ll gladly take Randall Cobb in the 10th round knowing he has a couple games guaranteed to produce big points. A bench receiver like Cobb can also be attractive trade bait.

Sproles in the 10th round? I’ll take that all day, even if he is an Eagle.

Who went before Eric’s pick: Robert Kelley, Jonathan Stewart, Kenny Britt, Dak Prescott, Cameron Meredith, Corey Davis, Darren Sproles, Jeremy Maclin, Zach Ertz

Final picks, Eric:

Martellus Bennett: See: Cobb, Randall about who plays QB in Green Bay. Bennett will have a monstrous season if he can stay healthy.  This is also another example of attractive trade bait.

Mike Williams: Well, this pick was made before the news that Williams might possibly miss the whole season. I liked the landing spot and potential of this to be a low-risk, high-reward pick but that’ll be caput if Williams goes on IR.

Jameis Winston: Matt seems to think Winston is a mediocre QB in the NFL. With Mike Evans and the newly acquired DeSean Jackson and OJ Howard, Winston has an impressive array of weapons in Tampa Bay. We’ll find out if Winston is for real this season.

Patriots D/ST: The retirement of Rob Ninkovich is a big, unexpected blow to the New England defense. Nink did nothing but make big plays and recover fumbles while also setting the edge in the run game. While he will be missed, this defense is just stacked. Two of the best corners in the league in Butler and Gilmore, one of the best safety tandems in McCourty and Chung, one of the best linebackers in Donta Hightower and emerging star d-lineman in Trey Flowers. Throw in David Harris as Hightowers running mate at linebacker and good luck scoring on this D. They also play the Jets….twice.

Matt Bryant: Buckets.

Rex Burkhead: I have faith in Rex burkhead to be one of the most under-the-radar moves and also one of the most impactful moves of the offseason. Him and Gillislee will make for a great pairing in New England. They will both compliment each other as well as Super Bowl hero James White and Dion Lewis very well.

Final picks, Matt:

Latavius Murray: It’s a late round flyer, but I’m not sold on Dalvin Cook. Murray could end up with more carries and more success.

John Brown: This might be my best pick of the draft. Brown had a down year last season but news out of training camp suggests he’s due to return to his prior success. Brown has tremendous value in the 12th round.

Tyrod Taylor: Taylor is significantly underrated. He has dual-threat talent and carries the Bills offense on his back. With Luck’s injury status in question, it is nice to have Taylor available to fill in for the first few weeks.

Tyrell Williams: I figured I could make a decent Game of Thrones joke out of his last name. Let’s just hope my team fares better than Margaery did.

Matt Prater: Detroit kicks a lot of Field Goals, but not a lot of Extra Points.

Panthers D/ST: I couldn’t care less about the defense I draft. I add/drop defenses every week based on matchups.

Note: We drafted on July 23rd and analyzed from July 23-30. 

We encourage you to let us know what you think, leave comments below and sign-up to receive notifications whenever we post. 

 

About Matt Hicks

Matt’s writing at Top2 is focused on dynasty fantasy football. He loves blending his experience writing research in the field of education with fantasy football stats. Matt currently lives in Baltimore, MD and graduated from Eastern Connecticut State University and the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. You can follow Matt on Twitter: @Top2Matt

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s