This article references Matt’s keeper league. While reading this article keep in mind that this league has ESPN standard scoring, is a 3 team keeper league currently entering its 8th season, and has an OP (offensive player) slot which allows for players to start 2 QBs.
If you tuned into Sirius XM 210 yesterday you heard me state that I’m all in on Cam Newton this season. My first two keepers are easy choices: Antonio Brown and OBJ, giving me the Top 2 WR’s in the game (see what I did there)? I made a conscious decision at the end of last season to trade Matthew Stafford, Jay Ajayi, and Davante Adams for Cam Newton and Sammy Watkins. The fantasy player I made the trade with was making a playoff run and benefited from the short term, but I was planning for the long term (a strategy so bold the trade was vetoed the first time around by the other players in the league). Naturally, then, I’m keeping Cam this year, and I expect him to lead me to fantasy glory.
So why would I sell off my chances of making the 2016 playoffs and reserve my QB slot for Newton, who currently has an ADP of 74? The answer is pretty easy, he is still Cam Newton. Remember, this is the guy who led his team to a 15-1 record in 2015. It is true that Cam was a huge disappointment to fantasy players last season, posting a career low 75.8 QB rating, with 19 passing TDs, and 5 rushing TDs, along with 14 INT. With that disappointment, comes a huge opportunity for me, and you.
Let’s look at his career stats before 2016. In 2015 he put up 4,473 combined passing and rushing yards with 45 TDs. 45 TDs…in 1 season. 2015 wasn’t an anomaly either: his career averages, including 2016, are 3,628 passing yards, 594 rushing yards, and 30 TDs per season. In ESPN standard scoring, that gives Cam a career average of 332 fantasy points per season (that is adjusted for his career 13 INT per season). That’s 3 points higher than Aaron Rodgers is projected for, 5 points higher than Tom Brady, and 21 points higher than Drew Brees, currently the 3 highest ranked and drafted QBs.
Newton has weapons around him, including the dynamic Christian McCaffery who will make a big impact catching passes out of the backfield. He also has a very consistent Greg Olsen at TE and an underrated Devin Funchess catching passes. Kelvin Benjamin has looked good this preseason and could….finally…. have his breakout year.
Here is the key takeaway with Newton, don’t be a prisoner of the moment. Remember to evaluate players in the long term to truly assess their value. Newton is the perfect storm of fantasy value right now and I suggest everyone considers him a top 3 QB for the 2017 season.
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Categories: Fantasy Football