DFS Basketball: December 9th Slate

Ken Mahoney, Contributor from Turning 2 Sports (@Turning2Sports)

https://www.turningtwosports.com/ 

Welcome back! It’s time for another DraftKings Basketball preview, brought to you by Turning Two Sports, where we DO care about your fantasy team!

We have ourselves an 8 game evening slate on tap for this Saturday evening, and there are a few games definitely worth targeting for maximum value and beyond. To briefly name a few, I love the Orlando/Atlanta, Cleveland/Philadelphia, and San Antonio/Phoenix contests. You’ll see the full rundown shortly.

In order to set a perfect lineup on DraftKings, we want to look for players who will provide 5x their salary in returning point output. So if Steph Curry comes in at $9,000 and James Harden comes in at $9,600, Curry needs 45 points to return value while Harden needs 48. To think about it on the fly, just do this:

(Salary * .001 * 5) <= DFS Points

Now with that said, here is the overall record for the season. I’m considering a miss as anything less than 4x value. A hit is anything at or above 5x value, with rounding of course. Displayed below is the format “Hits – Misses”

Season Record: 105-65

 

Lineup 1:

PG – Chris Paul $7,900 – Better late than never for Chris Paul in 2017. It took us quite some time to see how Chris Paul would fit in with his Rockets teammates. So far things have been going swimmingly for the nine time all-star. Now that CP3 is rounding into form and receiving his normal dosage of minutes (between 30-37 min. over the last 5), I really like Paul at just under 8k. He’s really been solid in his limited action, having not come in under 30 DK points yet. In a plus matchup with Portland, I look for Paul to easily net 5x value on DraftKings. Target: 39.5

SG – Jonathan Simmons $5,700 – The Magic have a serious lack of depth for tonights plus matchup in Atlanta. I mentioned earlier this is one of my favorite stacks of the night, and that will be the trend in our first lineup. The magic will be without Fournier, and now it’s looking like Aaron Gordon may miss the game with a concussion. That means Simmons is going to receive an extra usage boost on top of his already 35+ minutes he receives. He only needs just over 25 DK points to net value, and he’s been right around 25 in each of his last 5 games. Atlanta has also been absolutely dreadful on the defensive end against opposing shooting guards and small forwards. Target: 28.5

SF – Kent Bazemore $5,200 – Small Forward is pretty cut and dry tonight. Pay up for LeBron or Giannis, or pay down and hope for value. For this lineup, I’ll stick with the same game and go with Bazemore against the shorthanded Magic squad. Without Fournier nor Terrance Ross, I expect Bazemore to see a lot of looks for the Hawks. He’s not the safest play, but the price tag is just too sweet to pass up, and the matchup goes right along with it. Target: 26

PF – Robert Covington $6,000 – Covington is the best defender on the floor at any given time for Philly, and I expect him to see a lot of minutes as they try to contain LeBron tonight. His defensive prowess allows him to hit value without the dependency of scoring, like so many of his teammates are reliant on. He’s really come through in two of his last three, and I expect the same tonight. Target: 30

C – Nikola Vucevic $8,300 – I just had to play Vuc tonight, and I’m considering him my favorite play of the night. The Hawks are still a bit banged up in the frontcourt, as John Collins is not close to returning to action. In his absence, it’s a lot of Ersan Ilyasova, who won’t be able to contain Vucevic tonight. Not only that, but there are a ton of extra shots to go around while Ross, Fournier, and probably Gordon are out of action. In three of Vuc’s last four he’s obliterated 5x value. Fade him at your own risk. Target: 41.5

G – Nicolas Batum $6,300 – I considered Schroder here, but I really, really love the salary relief of Batum in this spot against the Lakers. All the Hornets make for good plays tonight against a putrid Lakers squad, and with Jeremy Lamb being listed as doubtful it makes the Batum play all the better. Batum is finally rounding into form, having gone for over 30 DK points in each of his last 3. If he does that tonight, he’ll have himself a lot of happy owners. Target: 31.5

F – Richaun Holmes $3,600 – Holmes may be the best price per dollar projection of the night. Embiid is resting for the game tonight with Cleveland, and that means all systems go for Holmes. As a DFS player, you wait for the nights like these. There are a whole slew of minimum salary players that only need minutes to become gems for your lineups. I like Holmes tonight. Kevin Love is not a sound defender as we all know, and without Embiid I think we see Holmes get to 30 minutes, or very close. If he does that, 5x value is guaranteed. Target: 18

U – Brandon Ingram $6,900 – Ingram is really developing into a solid offensive contributor for the Lakers. His salary has jumped significantly since the season has started, but it’s warranted by him netting 6x value or more in three of his last four. Against a banged up Hornets team, I really like Ingram in this contest. I’m not sure there’s going to be a blowout, as the Hornets are playing in the second half of a back to back. Target: 34.5

 

Lineup 2:

PG – Patty Mills $4,200 – Tony Parker will rest tonight, which puts Patty Mills in a prime spot against the Suns. The Suns rank dead last in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards. Mills is a great way to start off a DraftKings roster at just over 4k. I don’t remember the last time the Suns kept a point guard under 20 DK points who saw a full complement of minutes. Target: 21

SG – J.J. Redick $5,100 – By now, you know that the Cavs have really, really struggled with off guards. Redick has been given the green light to sit on the three point line and chuck up shots for the majority of the game. He doesn’t play a whole lot of defense, but when his shot is falling he’s a must play in tournaments. He struggled last time out with the Lakers, so he may come in under owned. If that happens, we might have ourselves one of the gems of the night. Before the Lakers game, he went three straight games with 30 DK points. Target: 25.5

SF – LeBron James $11,600 – You have to play a stud tonight, and that will be LeBron for me. I considered Simmons at under 10k, but I think without Embiid that Simmons is going to warrant a ton of attention from the Cavs defenders. He’s not going to sneak past anybody. On the other hand, LeBron has been a man possessed during the Cavs winning streak. He’s just about as guaranteed a 50 point performance that you are going to get over on DraftKings. I’ll play LeBron tonight and worry about the other positions on my roster. Target: 58

PF – LaMarcus Aldridge $8,400 – Hopefully a lot of people still think Kawhi is playing tonight. LMA is going to feast on the frontcourt of the Suns in this one. Chandler and Len are both beat up, so they have some serious depth issues ahead of tonight. The Suns are 29th out of 30 teams when it comes to DK points allowed to opposing power forwards. LMA comes in as one of the better plays of the night at just over 8k. Target: 42

C – Dwight Howard $7,600 – I expect a lot of Howard ownership tonight, but I didn’t want to miss out on him in both my lineups. He erupted for 25 points and 20 rebounds against an ultra-soft Bulls frontcourt last night, and should be able to do the same against the Lakers frontcourt. The Lakers stink, and Howard shouldn’t have any issue hitting 35 DK points against his old team. He may not hit 67 like last night, but we don’t need him to do that. Target: 38

G – Taurean Prince $5,300 – Let’s go back to Atlanta for this plug. Prince has been a solid contributor for the Hawks all season long. He loses minutes in blowouts, but I’m not worried about a blowout tonight against a seriously shorthanded Magic team. Without Fournier, Ross, or Gordon, Prince should definitely be able to hit 25 DK points. Target: 26.5

F – Marvin Williams $4,100 – Williams was tremendous against the Bulls last night while Zeller and Kaminsky sat. He went for 17/9 and netted 34.8 DK points at 3.9k. He was probably a staple in the night’s winning lineup. Tonight, I hope Kaminsky sits again. If he does, Marvin will again be a must play in all GPP tournaments. I’m locking him in anyways, because Jeremy Lamb is also listed as doubtful. That may allow Marvin to soak up some minutes at the three in relief of MKG. Target: 20.5

U – Richaun Holmes $3,600 – Normally I don’t like playing one guy in two lineups, but Holmes is guaranteed minutes tonight in a great matchup against a soft Cleveland frontcourt and without Joel Embiid hogging all the usage. Target: 18

 

Best of luck everyone. Thanks for reading and appreciate the support. Go make some money!

Follow Ken and the Turning2Sports crew on Twitter @Turning2Sports for more great DFS advice; and much more!cp3.jpg

About Matt Hicks

Matt’s writing at Top2 is focused on dynasty fantasy football. He loves blending his experience writing research in the field of education with fantasy football stats. Matt currently lives in Baltimore, MD and graduated from Eastern Connecticut State University and the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. You can follow Matt on Twitter: @Top2Matt

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