Ken Mahoney, Contributor from Turning 2 Sports (@Turning2Sports)

https://www.turningtwosports.com/ 

Welcome back! It’s time for another DFS Basketball preview, brought to you by Turning Two Sports, where we DO care about your fantasy team!

In order to set a perfect lineup on DraftKings, we want to look for players who will provide 5x their salary in returning point output. So if Steph Curry comes in at $9,000 and James Harden comes in at $9,600, Curry needs 45 points to return value while Harden needs 48. To think about it on the fly, just do this:

(Salary * .001 * 5) <= DFS Points

Now with that said, here is the overall record for the season. I’m considering a miss as anything less than 4x value (Blue snowflake on DraftKings). A hit is anything at or above 5x value (Red flame on DraftKings). Displayed below is the format “Hits – Misses”

Season Record: 120-71 (59.2% hit rate)

Top Game Stack: Milwaukee Bucks @ New Orleans Pelicans (-2): Over/Under 218

 

Point Guard

Chris Paul $8,400 – Paul has a fantastic matchup tonight against a very guard-deficient Hornets team. Batum remains banged up, who is one of their better defenders. He’s probable to return but I wouldn’t expect a full dosage of minutes. This game should be played at a very fast pace, which will give CP3 a ton of assist chances throughout. He’s gone over 40 DK points in each of his last 3, including a 58 point performance against a very tough Utah team. Believe it or not, I think he could get there again tonight against a Hornets team. Target: 42

Kyle Lowry $8,300 – Lowry is my other favorite point guard play of the night. Both Paul and Lowry come in at mid 8k price range, which is great value. While Lowry has largely struggled this year, I’m not sure anybody has struggled against Phoenix this season. They may be one of the worst defensive teams of all time. There’s some blowout risk here, but considering the fact that Lowry would need to ball out for the blowout to come to fruition, he should be safe. Target: 41.5

David Nwaba $4,100 – Nwaba has been very efficient and safe for DraftKings purposes since returning to the lineup. He’s now hit value in three straight, with a minimum of 24 DK points in those three games. The matchup with Utah isn’t great, and the over/under on this game is just shy of 200. I won’t have a ton of exposure to this game, but there’s not many point guard eligible players on the slate at such a great price. Target: 20.5

Milos Teodosic $3,900 – Teodosic played 21 minutes on Monday, scoring 12 points and adding 7 rebounds to finish just over 5x value. It’s clear that the Clippers want him in the rotation, and as he continues to get healthier and Gallinari continues to get weaker I expect those minutes to go up. The Clippers are starved for good guard play right now as they have been forced to use Lou Williams more than they probably want to. Against a putrid Magic backcourt, I like Teodosic to hit value easily. Target: 19.5

 

Shooting Guard

Jonathan Simmons $6,400 – Simmons is by far the best shooting guard on the slate for GPP contests. Fournier and Gordon have been ruled out, and those two guys are two of the highest used players on the team after Vucevic (more to come on him). Simmons is going to be very popular, but I am not comfortable fading him. He may see 40 minutes yet again, and obliterate 5x value. I see 5x as his floor tonight. Target: 32

Alec Burks $5,100 – I did say I didn’t want too much exposure to this game, but when you see my lineup containing two 11k players you’ll see why I want the value Burks offers. He hasn’t come in under 21 DK points in about a month, and is really cemented into a scoring role in 27-30 minutes a night. All I want is 20 points tonight, but 25 would be great. Target: 25.5

Alex Abrines $3,300 – I’m surprised by the lack of exposure Abrines is getting. Roberson has again been ruled out, and last game Abrines saw 26 minutes. The game before, he saw 43 minutes! For minimum salary, how can you not play him tonight? He’s not a high usage guy, and he may not get to 15, but I’m taking that chance for sure. Target: 16.5

 

Small Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo $11,300 – Giannis is the best way to pay up tonight. The Pelicans have absolutely nobody who is going to be able to matchup with him. While it does hurt if AD plays, he’s not fast enough to follow the Greek Freak around all night. He’ll see a lot of Moore, and maybe some Holiday. I’m not worried in the slightest. I think 50 DK points is the floor tonight, but I see this game staying close all the way down to the final buzzer. The Over/Under is at 218 and there’s a two point spread. This is a great game for GPP. Target: 56.5

Khris Middleton $6,800 – Let’s get some exposure to Giannis’ teammates as well, in the form of Khris Middleton. I wasn’t planning to play him on this slate, but this price is crazy. Very rarely does Middleton come in under 30 DK points. In fact, he hasn’t done so since November 28th in a blowout win against Sacramento. He sees a TON of minutes, usually anywhere from 35-40. There’s going to be some salary correction coming soon, so lock him in while the price is right. Target: 34

Trey Lyles $4,400 – I’m nervous about this play because Jokic is questionable to return, however even if he does I can see a minutes restriction in his first game back. Believe it or not, since Jokic has gone down we’ve finally starting seeing some flashes of upside from Lyles. The price is low, but he’s hit value in six of his last seven. The one time he didn’t is when they got blew out Orlando. I don’t think this game materializes into a blowout with Horford already ruled out. Horford sitting is also a checkmark in the “play” column for Lyles. Target: 22

 

Power Forward

DeMarcus Cousins $11,000 – Cousins isn’t as great of a play if Davis returns, but I actually don’t really care all that much. For the most part, Cousins has been largely better and far more reliable this year than AD. Milwaukee is absolutely dreadful against opposing bigs, and they continue to be one of the worst rebounding teams in all of the NBA. That means Cousins has a legitimate shot to bring down 20 boards tonight. Here’s another guy where 50 may end up being the floor tonight. Target: 55

Serge Ibaka $5,700 – Power forward is putrid after Boogie. Ibaka does worry me due to blowout concern, but I’m thinking he can still hit value as long as he gets close to 30 minutes. We all know about the benefits of a matchup with Phoenix, they get shredded by power forwards. Ibaka is coming around as well, having gone for over 30 DK points in each of his last four. 30 DK points would actually be over 5x value tonight, so Ibaka is a solid play at an awful position. Target: 28

Daniel Theis $3,600 – I get it, what a gross plug. What is Turning Two thinking? Well, we’re thinking that Theis is a minimum salary play at a weak position. We’re also considering the fact that Horford has already been ruled out, which should immediately mean some more minutes for guys like Baynes and Theis. It’s clear that Coach Brad Stevens likes him in the rotation as he provides a lot of hustle of the bench. He reminds me a lot of what Jerebko was for the Celtics last year, and he was a solid punt play on nights like tonight. Target: 18

 

Center

Nikola Vucevic $8,800 – My favorite play of the night is Vucevic and it’s not really close. He has been an absolute monster over the last week, and most of it may be attributed to Fournier and Gordon missing. They are both missing tonight as well. In three of his last four games, he has not gone under 50 DK points. That’s awesome value for a guy who is not even at 9k yet. Vuc is putting it all together this year, and he’s not at a price point yet that would make me scared to play him. Target: 44

Greg Monroe $4,800 – Monroe is finally seeing minutes for the Suns and he’s been delivering. His last five DraftKings performances have seen point results of 23, 32, 34, 20, and 32. That’s great efficiency on an inefficient team. Monroe will have to battle Chandler for minutes, but I think Len is the odd man out for the short team. In a matchup against a soft Raptors front court, look for Monroe to hit 20 DK points yet again. Target: 24

Aron Baynes $3,900 – Baynes is the Celtic big to roster tonight if you are only going to play one. He’s been a very reliable presence on the glass for Boston so far this year. He figures to start tonight with Horford on the shelf. We just need 20 points for value, and I think he can get it tonight against some soft opponents on the Nuggets. If Jokic is back, the test becomes a bit tougher. However, if he can lock onto Faried or Plumlee I really like Baynes to hit 20 DK points. He did so against Detroit in his start on Sunday. Target: 19.5

 

Lineup 1:

PG – Kyle Lowry $8,300

SG – Chris Paul $8,400

SF – Khris Middleton $6,800

PF – Trey Lyles $4,400

C – Nikola Vucevic $8,800

G – Jonathan Simmons $6,400

F – Alex Abrines $3,800

U – Daniel Theis $3,600

 

Lineup 2:

PG – David Nwaba $4,100

SG – Milos Teodosic $3,900

SF – Giannis Antetokounmpo $11,300

PF – DeMarcus Cousins $11,000

C – Aron Baynes $3,900

G – Alec Burks $5,100

F – Greg Monroe $4,800

U – Serge Ibaka $5,700

 

Best of luck everyone. Thanks for reading and appreciate the support. Go make some money!

Follow Ken and the Turning2Sports crew on Twitter @Turning2Sports for more great DFS advice; and much more!

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