Ken Mahoney, Contributor from Turning 2 Sports (@Turning2Sports)

https://www.turningtwosports.com/ 

Welcome back! It’s time for another DFS Basketball preview, brought to you by Turning Two Sports, where we DO care about your fantasy team!

In order to set a perfect lineup on DraftKings, we want to look for players who will provide 5x their salary in returning point output. So if Steph Curry comes in at $9,000 and James Harden comes in at $9,600, Curry needs 45 points to return value while Harden needs 48. To think about it on the fly, just do this:

(Salary * .001 * 5) <= DFS Points

Now with that said, here is the overall record for the season. I’m considering a miss as anything less than 4x value (Blue snowflake on DraftKings). A hit is anything at or above 5x value (Red flame on DraftKings). Displayed below is the format “Hits – Misses”

Season Record: 127-73 (57.4% hit rate)

Top Game Stack: New York Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets (Even): Over/Under 214

 

Point Guard

Lonzo Ball $7,000 – This is a great spot for Lonzo tonight. He has a high profile matchup with the Cavs. While he has been very sporadic with his performances, I think tonight he can settle into the 40 DK point range such as he’s done in two of his last three. The Cavs are beat up. Wade might not play, but even if he does his hands will be full with the 19 year old. Target: 35

Reggie Jackson $5,800 – I considered plugging Schroder, but he’s just so expensive. The matchup for R-Jax is equally as good, he’s just not as a reliable as Schroder is. While Schroder is a great offensive player, he’s actually one of the worst single defenders in the league. Reggie is no sure thing, but the matchup is great. I’ll have exposure in GPP. Target: 29

Yogi Ferrell $4,600 – With DSJ on the shelf, Yogi has been receiving the starts and has been largely successful. He’s destroyed 5x value in four of his last five. The matchup with Golden State is a scary one, but without Curry in the lineup the Warriors have actually been bottom five in the league against opposing guards. His price is right on the cusp of being too expensive, but I’ll play him tonight. Target: 23

 

Shooting Guard

Klay Thompson $6,900 – Klay has been very safe lately for our DFS purposes. He’s settling into the 30-35 point range every night, which makes him perfect for cash games. I think tonight is a night where he hits 40 against a Mavericks team that just really isn’t that good at all. Draymond Green has also been ruled out, which gives Klay an additional boost. Target: 34.5

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $6,000 – KCP is a bit up and down at times, but by now you should know that picking on Cleveland shooting guards is an absolute must for GPP. They are utterly atrocious with opposing off-guards, which is where KCP will spend all of his time. Wade is banged up, so even if he goes he won’t be 100%. The other guys are Korver and J.R. Smith. Give me a break. Target: 30

Avery Bradley $5,100 – Much like R-Jax, Bradley gets done in by sporadic minutes allotment on the busy, but improving Pistons team. He was ill earlier this week when he put up a total dud against Denver, but if he is able to get to 30 minutes against the Hawks I don’t see how he misses value tonight. The Hawks rank dead last in the league dealing with guards, as far as DraftKings goes. Target: 25.5

 

Small Forward

Kevin Durant $11,300 – It’s either LeBron or KD tonight, as they are both over 11k and the highest priced players on the slate. LeBron has a good matchup with a bad Lakers team, while KD gets a good matchup with a bad Mavs team. I’ll take KD given the extra usage bump he’s getting without Curry and now without Draymond Green. There’s a lot of upside tonight, don’t rule out 70-80 DK points. Target: 56.5

Taurean Prince $5,700 – Prince is certainly coming around after some sporadic performances. This Detroit vs Atlanta matchup certainly has some potential for an offensive blow-up, as these two teams are not prominent on the defensive end. Prince has hit 5x value in each of his last four, and has destroyed 6x and 7x value in his last two. He’s a very safe play tonight. Target: 28.5

Caris LeVert $5,400 – How awesome has LeVert been lately? If you don’t know, allow me to enlighten you. He’s been over 20 DK points in his last four, and ten of eleven overall. Talk about efficiency. I expect his usage to plummet when Russell gets back, but that isn’t happening tonight in a very fast paced matchup with the Knicks. If he can get to 25, we’ll take it. There’s upside for more. Target: 27

 

Power Forward

Kevin Love $7,900 – I like the spot for Love tonight because I think he goes under owned. I believe everyone will play Porzingis tonight, so I’m pivoting down to Love who will abuse Brook Lopez on the offensive end. His price is fantastic at under 8k, but he offers similar upside to the guys like KP and Drummond. Take the 1k+ cost savings and run. Target: 39.5

Harrison Barnes $6,700 – I love playing Barnes against his old team. More often than not, he shows up. He’ll need to tonight as the Mavs go-to scorer. DSJ won’t be available, and Dirk is not the force he once was. This is Barnes’ team, no doubt about it. In five of his last seven, he’s gone for over 30 DK points. As long as that happens in a very, very fast paced matchup with Golden State we’ll be happy players. Target: 33.5

DeMarre Carroll $5,300 – Carroll bounced back nicely against the Wizards on Tuesday as he came in just over 5x value. Prior to that, he laid a couple of eggs against Miami and OK City. Against the Knicks tonight I think he sees minutes near 35-ish range. This one is going to be high scoring and it’s going to stay close. I like all the mid-priced guys in this game, as I think they can all hit value around 25 DK points. Target: 26.5

 

Center

Andre Drummond $9,300 – Again, I think KP is going to be the chalk play. I’ll gladly pivot down to the slightly cheaper Drummond, who I think goes under-owned after having been pretty bad the last few games. Most people won’t want to take the risk on a 9k player who hasn’t broke 40 DK points in either of his last three. Those games were against Denver, Boston, and Golden State who are not only slow, but tough on centers. Against a terrible Bucks frontcourt he hit 62 DK points. Tonight, he gets the Hawks. The Hawks are NOT good with centers at all. To me, this has 20+ rebounds written all over it. Target: 46.5

Willie Cauley-Stein $5,100 – Another perfect GPP play because of the lack of ownership, I’ll be all over WCS today against the T’Wolves. KAT is difficult to deal with, but he’s got an offensive mind. WCS is a big, lanky defender with a long wingspan. I think he sees a lot of KAT tonight, which will net him a ton of minutes. 25 DK points is the floor. Target: 25.5

Jordan Bell $3,600 – We saved the best for last. Bell will be in 100% of my lineups tonight with Draymond Green already having been ruled out. He’s awesome when given minutes, as he averages about 1 point per minute. In a game where he’ll see 20 minutes, I fully expect 20 DK points minimum. Target: 18

 

 

Lineup 1:

PG – Yogi Ferrell $4,600

SG – Klay Thompson $6,900

SF – Harrison Barnes $6,700

PF – Jordan Bell $3,600

C – Andre Drummond $9,300

G – Caris LeVert $5,400

F – Kevin Love $7,900

U – DeMarre Carroll $5,300

Lineup 2:

PG – Reggie Jackson $5,800

SG – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $6,000

SF – Taurean Prince $5,700

PF – Kevin Durant $11,300

C – Willie Cauley-Stein $5,100

G – Avery Bradley $5,100

F – Jordan Bell $3,600

U – Lonzo Ball $7,000

 

 

Best of luck everyone. Thanks for reading and appreciate the support. Go make some money!

Follow Ken and the Turning2Sports crew on Twitter @Turning2Sports for more great DFS advice; and much more!

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