DFS NFL: Week 16 Slate

Matt Hicks, Staff Writer

When writing DFS fantasy football articles, we use DraftKings’ values. In Week 16, I set 7 line-ups.

Quarterbacks

Best Value: Dak Prescott

I wrote here how much I like Dak this week, and I think he’s a steal at $6,000. Dak is a considerably different player with Zeke; throwing for 163-259 (63%) for 1,818 yards, 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in Weeks 1-9. I’m playing Dak in 3 line-ups this week.

High Upside: Tyrod Taylor

Taylor is a bit of a risk against New England, however, the Patriots do have a -2-turnover ratio against the quarterback over the last 4 weeks; meaning they can be scored on. Tyrod is only $5500; which could make him a steal if he’s able to score touchdowns with his arm and his legs like he did in Week 15. I didn’t fit Tyrod in any of my line-ups this week, but you can if you want to pay up for other positions.

Safe Play: Cam Newton

You have to pay up for Cam this week, at $6800; but that’s well worth it. Newton is now QB4 on the season and has scored 8 total touchdowns, while only throwing 1 interception since Week 12. In those 4 weeks Cam also has 937 total yards. Cam faces a weak Tampa Bay defense this week and makes for a juicy play. I have Cam in 2 line-ups.

Worst Value: Tom Brady

This one is easy, I can’t believe how high Brady is given his recent performance. Brady is currently the second highest priced QB at $6900 but we’ve been calling for him to be benched in year-long formats this week. Since Week 13 Brady has completed just 62% of his passes (67-108) and has thrown 2 more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (2).

Running Backs

Best Value: Ezekiel Elliot

Zeke is undervalued this week, at $8,000, because of concerns surrounding how in shape he is after missing 6 weeks. The fact he’s fresh, completely healthy, and playing worn down defenses that have been grinding for the last 6 weeks should be an upside, not a hinderance. Zeke is currently RB 10 on the season, even though he’s played nearly half of the games most RBs have; he’s a steal at $8,000 and I have him in 3 line-ups; one stack with Dak.

High Upside: Elijaa Penny

Penny is the next man up if Williams (questionable) is out for Sunday’s game vs the Giants. New York has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. In Penny’s 10 carries in Week 15 he averaged 4.5 yards a carry. At just $3,000 Perry is a sneaky play for those who need high upside for cheap at the running back position. I have Penny in 2 line-ups.

Safe Play: Alvin Kamara

For $8.300 you get the RB4 on the season who is playing in what Vegas has pegged as the highest scoring game of the week. This one makes a lot of sense, so I won’t drive home the point. I have Kamara in 2 line-ups this week.

Worst Value: Jordan Howard

I wrote in detail about why I don’t like Jordan Howard this week. Instead of spending $6,600 on this boom/bust play, you can spend $6,400 on Christian McCaffery; who I think has a higher ceiling and a safer floor this week. You also would get more value out of Freeman, at $6,500, who has a great Week 15 and is playing in the aforementioned shootout game.

Wide Receivers

Best Value: Jarvis Landry

Landry is WR14 on the season, and if you take out Robby Anderson and Davante Adams (who have both lost significant fantasy value), that makes him a WR1. Yet Landry remains at $6,300, coming hot off a week where he caught 10 passes for 99 yards. I wrote earlier this week about why Landry is a must start in season-long leagues, and I have him in 4 line-ups this week.

High Upside: Kendall Wright

I love Kendall Wright this week, and he’s super cheap at $3,800. Over the last two weeks Wright has caught 17 of his 24 targets for 188 yards. That enough makes him more valuable than $3,800 but if he can find the end zone he’s a difference maker in your line-up.  I have Wright in 3 line-ups.

Safe Play: Doug Baldwin

Baldwin has had a disappointing season, by his standards. This lowers his price to $6,300, and makes him a safer play. Baldwin has been targeted at least 4 times in 12 games this season and has more than 75 receiving yards 6 times. Dallas has allowed the 8th most points to opposing wideouts over the last 4 weeks, including allowing 1.5 touchdowns/game, 12.5 receptions/game and 152 yards/game to opposing receivers. I have Baldwin in 2 line-ups.

Worst Value: Julio Jones

Since Week 13, Jones has caught just 10 of his 25 targets, and is averaging just 59 yards/game. Yet Jones is 3rd most expensive wide receiver at $7,900. The juicy match-up isn’t enough to justify his price, considering Keenan Allen (WR4, $7,700), AJ Green (WR7, $6,700), Tyreek Hill (WR3, $6,500), and Marvin Jones (WR6, $6,400) are all cheaper than Jones and have performed better than the WR8 this season.

Tight Ends

Best Value: Eric Ebron

Eric Ebron is one of the only two tight ends I’m playing this week. I have him in 4 line-ups and it’s because he’s a great value at $3,700. I’ve been hyping up Ebron all week; he’s seen 18 targets over the last two weeks and has caught 15 of those for 127 yards and a touchdown. This man is re-hot and there’s no reason to think he’s slowing down now against a depleted Bengals defense.

High Upside: Antonio Gates

You guessed it, Gates is in my other 3 line-ups. I’m not spending at the position this week, not when I can get this huge upside play with Hunter Henry out. For just $2,500 Gates’ touchdown potential and production when given volume this season give him great upside potential. There’s more on Gates’ upside here.

Safe Play: Evan Engram

At $5,600, Engram is a safe play for someone who isn’t daring enough to play Gates but also doesn’t want to fork over $7,400 for Gronk. Engram is TE4 on the season and has had at least 6 targets in 12 games this week. Since Week 13, Engram has caught 19 of 28 targets for 240 yards and a touchdown. As the offense continues to struggle for the Giants, Engram continues to be the go-to option.

Worst Value: Greg Olsen

I go into more detail here about why Olsen is a major trap this week. At $5,200 he’s the 5th most expensive play at the position, and I don’t expect him to finish as a WR1 in Week 16. You’d be much better off paying up for Engram or dropping way to down Ebron.

Follow us on Twitter @Top2Sports for daily fantasy advice and everything you need to know to win your fantasy championship

About Matt Hicks

Matt’s writing at Top2 is focused on dynasty fantasy football. He loves blending his experience writing research in the field of education with fantasy football stats. Matt currently lives in Baltimore, MD and graduated from Eastern Connecticut State University and the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. You can follow Matt on Twitter: @Top2Matt

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