DFS Basketball: January 11th Slate

Welcome back! It’s time for another DFS Basketball preview, brought to you by Turning Two Sports, where we DO care about your fantasy team!

In order to set a perfect lineup on DraftKings, we want to look for players who will provide 5x their salary in returning point output. So if Steph Curry comes in at $9,000 and James Harden comes in at $9,600, Curry needs 45 points to return value while Harden needs 48. To think about it on the fly, just do this:

(Salary * .001 * 5) <= DFS Points

Now with that said, here is the overall record for the season. I’m considering a miss as anything less than 4x value (Blue snowflake on DraftKings). A hit is anything at or above 5x value (Red flame on DraftKings). Displayed below is the format “Hits – Misses”

Season Record: 152-96 (61.3% hit rate)

Top Game Stack: Cleveland Cavaliers (-3) @ Toronto Raptors: Over/Under 222.5

 

Point Guard

Delon Wright $5,100 – With Lowry doubtful to play tonight in a fantastic matchup against Cleveland, I expect Delon Wright to be very chalky. He’s not one I’m willing to fade tonight. Wright will be matched up with a lot of Isaiah Thomas, so he has himself a very high ceiling tonight. He’s been very solid in holding value even with Lowry in the lineup, so without Lowry I’m expecting that he can reach 30 DK points with ease. The price is up, but it’s not quite inflated yet. Point guard is very thin tonight, as are most of the positions on a three game slate. Wright is the best of the bunch in my opinion. Target: 25.5

 

Shooting Guard

DeMar DeRozan $8,800 – You’ll inevitably be forced to choose between DeMar or Lou Williams tonight. My reasoning for DeMar is simply due to the fact that Lou has played extremely heavy minutes recently, and played the game of his life just last night against the Warriors as he dropped 50 real life points! I would expect a bit of a downturn for tonight’s matchup, especially if Teodosic returns. Instead, let’s switch to DeMar in a prime matchup with Cleveland. Cleveland ranks 27th in the league in terms of DK points allowed to shooting guards, which is where DeMar will see most of his time. He may see some of LeBron down the stretch since Toronto doesn’t really believe in small forwards, but that’s not going to deter me. Target: 44

Manu Ginobli $4,400 – Manu was rested on Monday, which means he should be in for his regular 25 minute workload tonight against the Lakers. Clearly Manu still has a role on the Spurs, especially given the fact that Kawhi will not play tonight. In Manu’s last three, he’s been a monster. He’s went off for 5x, 8x, and 10x value! For tournaments, he’s a lock for me tonight. Target: 22

 

Small Forward

LeBron James $11,300 – LeBron is the highest priced player on the slate, and by a steep margin as well. The next guy up is LMA at almost 3k less, so LBJ is tough to fade tonight. Toronto, a solid defensive team, do struggle with formidable small forwards. LeBron is certainly the cream of the crop. I expect him to see some of DeRozan later on in the game, but by that point 5x value will be long surpasses against the likes of CJ Miles and whoever else they slot up against him. There could be reason enough to fade LeBron and pay up elsewhere, but that’s tough to do on tonight’s slate. You’d be looking at guys like Lou Williams, DeAndre Jordan, and LaMarcus Aldridge. I’ll take my chances with The King. Target: 56.5

Kyle Anderson $5,400 – As long as Kawhi is out, there’s no reason not to play Anderson. He’s been as solid as they come in recent weeks, having gone for over 20 DK points in six of his last seven. His price is a bit inflated, but remember that some of those seven games featured an active Kawhi Leonard. With Kawhi inactive tonight, Anderson should be a lock for a 25 point floor. Target: 27

 

Power Forward

Davis Bertrans $4,500 – Yet another Spur who has seen dramatic usage increase with Kawhi off the floor. Bertans seems to be finding his calling in the NBA, and looks incredibly smooth and confident as a shooter. His price is finally over 4k, but still not high enough given his recent play and banged up teammates. He’s been well over 20 DK points in each of his last four, including a near 40 point effort last time out against the Kings. The Lakers are just as bad, if not worse than the Kings. The Lakers also play at a significantly faster pace than the Kings, which fits into Bertrans’ game wonderfully. Target: 22.5

Pascal Siakam $4,100 – With Ibaka out tonight, Siakam is MUST PLAY. Seriously, he’s not the one to fade on this slate. He’s the cheapest, best bargain play of the night. He’ll draw the start for the suspended Ibaka in all likelihood, and play 30 minutes against a Cavs team that ranks 28th in the league in DK points allowed to power forwards. Pascal is a tasty play if there ever was one. Target: 20.5

 

Center

Willie Cauley-Stein $6,300 – Finally, our center play. What was originally DeAndre Jordan has been changed to WCS. You save yourselfs over 2k in salary, but the upside really isn’t all that different. If Blake Griffin plays, Jordan’s upside lessens even more. WCS however, will be his usual, consistent self against a Clippers team that is very below average on the defensive end. In seven of his last nine games, WCD has gone over 30 DK points. In the two games he didn’t he netted 25 and 19. His floor is high, and his ceiling is even higher. I love the pivot down off of the inconsistent Kevin Love and the sporadic DeAndre Jordan. Target: 31.5

 

Lineup 1:

PG – Delon Wright $5,100

SG – DeMar DeRozan $8,800

SF – LeBron James $11,300

PF – Pascal Siakam $4,100

C – Willie Cauley-Stein $6,300

G – Kyle Anderson $5,400

F – Davis Bertrans $4,500

U – Manu Ginobli $4,400

Best of luck everyone. Thanks for reading and appreciate the support. Go make some money!

About Matt Hicks

Matt’s writing at Top2 is focused on dynasty fantasy football. He loves blending his experience writing research in the field of education with fantasy football stats. Matt currently lives in Baltimore, MD and graduated from Eastern Connecticut State University and the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. You can follow Matt on Twitter: @Top2Matt

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