DFS Basketball: January 22nd Slate

Welcome back! It’s time for another DFS Basketball preview, brought to you by Turning Two Sports, where we DO care about your fantasy team!

In order to set a perfect lineup on DraftKings, we want to look for players who will provide 5x their salary in returning point output. So if Steph Curry comes in at $9,000 and James Harden comes in at $9,600, Curry needs 45 points to return value while Harden needs 48. To think about it on the fly, just do this:

(Salary * .001 * 5) <= DFS Points

Now with that said, here is the overall record for the season. I’m considering a miss as anything less than 4x value (Blue snowflake on DraftKings). A hit is anything at or above 5x value (Red flame on DraftKings). Displayed below is the format “Hits – Misses”

Season Record: 158-105 (60.1% hit rate)

Top Game Stack: Phoenix Suns @ Milwaukee Bucks (-5): Over/Under 214

 

Point Guard

Damian Lillard $8,800 – Dame might not be all that chalky tonight, making him a fascinating GPP play against an inefficient Nuggets backcourt. He’s always a guy with incredibly high usage and a very high ceiling, which has be intrigued at a sub-9k price point. There are other point guards on this slate worthy of considering, but Lillard may come in as the safest non-Buck on the slate. I’m chasing the cost savings here for sure. Target: 44

Eric Bledsoe $8,200 – With Giannis ruled out, expect the majority to be on Bledsoe and Middleton tonight with good reason. Bledsoe didn’t exactly set the world on fire without Giannis last time out against Philly, but tonight he has a revenge matchup against the porous Suns backcourt which continues to be in the basement of the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency. With the game at home, and with a pretty enticing over/under and a close spread, look for Bledsoe to see 35 minutes minimum. There’s a lot of usage to go around without the Greek Freak. Target: 41

Rajon Rondo $5,200 – The Bulls are actually the worst team in the league against point guards, and Kris Dunn will miss the game tonight with a concussion. To me, that puts Rondo firmly in play here. The Over/Under on this game is humongous, and with that comes explosive point outburst from Davis and Cousins, and with that comes rising assist numbers for Rondo. Add all that up, and 25 DK points seems right in the realm of play tonight. His shot hasn’t been falling lately, and his outputs haven’t exactly won us much money, but all that means is that he won’t be chalky for your GPP contests. Target: 26

Jerian Grant $4,900 – On the other side of the court we have Grant, who was actually a more-than-serviceable DFS asset when Kris Dunn was on the shelf. With him out on Saturday, Grant drew the start at the point and netted 27 DK points in 26 minutes. That’s not bad at all, and he could be flirting with 6x the price point tonight. Dunn has been a usage hog for weeks now, and Grant needs to showcase his abilities to maintain his role in the rotation. Target: 24.5
Shooting Guard

Andrew Wiggins $6,100 – Wiggins should be in almost 100% of lineups tonight, so again prepare for him to be chalky. Without Jimmy Butler, there’s a ton of shots and minutes to go around in Minnesota. We’ll be touching on a few of them, but Wiggins will see the biggest spike. He had 38 DK points in 36 minutes last time out, and expect him to see close to 40 minutes yet again without Butler active. Thibodeau loves to run players into the ground, and without his prized possession on the court I expect Wiggins to see the run. Target: 30.5

Milos Teodosic $5,400 – Austin Rivers won’t play tonight, which immediately opens up playing time for Teodosic against the Timberwolves tonight. Having him active and involved is huge for the Clippers right now, since they are playing Lou Williams significantly more minutes than they want to, and running him a the point more than they want to. Teodosic still has a modest price, but he’s seeing 30 minutes a game and has hit value in three of his last five. He missed value against the Jazz with Gobert active, which tends to happen to a lot of guys. It’s a really good spot for Milos. Target: 22

Alec Burks $3,300 – You definitely need some punt plays tonight, so why not go with Burks, who has a great matchup against a dreadful Hawks squad, and the added bonus of Rodney Hood being out. Burks went for 7x value in 18 minutes on Saturday, so he’s been very good for the minutes he’s being allotted in the absence of Hood. Hood provides a scoring spark that the Jazz usually need, and Burks is a very similar player. Look for a 20 point floor tonight, minimum. Target: 16.5

 

Small Forward

Khris Middleton $8,700 – Middleton, along with Bledsoe, will be a very popular stack. Middleton was the main benefactor of Giannis sitting out last game, as he went off for 60 DK points in his usual 40 minutes. He has an even faster, poorer defending matchup with Phoenix tonight, and one that I refuse to shy away from. There’s not much else to say, Middleton will be chalky and he’ll be worth it. Target: 43.5

Josh Richardson $6,300 – No Dragic, no Johnson, no Waiters. These next two picks are shoe-ins given that previous sentence. J-Rich has been a model of consistency for the Heat so far this season. He’s been over 30 DK points in four straight, but has been hit value in five straight. With all the injuries in the backcourt, it’s going to be on J-Rich to lead the charge against a Rockets squad who could run away with things if Miami isn’t careful. We all know how poor Houston’s exterior defense is this year, which should help Richardson get to that 30 DK point plateau yet again. 31.5

Wayne Ellington $5,300 – Pivoting down 1k you have Wayne Ellington, who has been a tremendous shooting presence in the absence of Waiters. He’s coming off 5x value in nine of his last eleven games, and is a constant 30-35+ minute player for the Heat. He provides the offensive spark that’s been missing without Waiters, and against a Rockets squad who ranks 27th in the league in terms of DK points allowed to off-guards, expect a lot of run and lot of usage for Wayne tonight. Target: 26.5

 

Power Forward

Blake Griffin $8,600 – Without Jordan soaking up the frontcourt, we’ve seen Griffin go for over 40 DK points in his last three, including a 51 point effort. He’s definitely crashing the glass more with Jordan out than he had been all season. He’s averaging a modest 7.8 RPG, and in his last three has brought down totals of 8, 12, and 10. Jordan is set to miss the slate again tonight, so look for another solid rebounding night from Blake on his way to another 40 point night, if we’re lucky. Power forward is weak tonight, as you either have to pick a lottery ticket, pick Blake, or spend up on the Pelicans duo. Target: 43

Trey Lyles $5,300 – Lyles re-entered the starting lineup on Friday and delivered with 26 DK points in 28 minutes. Tonight, his matchup remains above average against the Blazers. Coach Mike Malone indicated the frontcourt would undergo some changes, and with Lyles getting the first crack and delivering I expect him to yet again be the dominant four next to Jokic. They are getting more from Lyles this season than they are from Faried, Plumlee, and the rest. Even with all the mouths to feed in Denver, I’ll lock in Lyles tonight due to the weakness of the position. Target: 26.5

Nemanja Bjelica $3,000 – Butler is missing tonight, so lock in Bjelica as the clear punt play of the night. In Butler’s missed game on Saturday, Bjelica saw 26 minutes and his 6x value. While he isn’t going to set the world on fire, if you can get 6x value (or 20 DK points) from a minimum salary player, go ahead and lock that in. With Butler already confirmed out, take the sure minutes and enjoy the cost savings elsewhere. Target: 15

 

Center

Karl-Anthony Towns $9,500 – I like KAT a lot more than the Pelicans duo tonight for a few reasons. One, and most importantly, KAT comes in at over 1k the discount of AD and Boogie. Secondly, with Butler out, KAT is going to be the leader of the T’Wolves against the Clippers. I expect his usage to creep up towards what we saw last season, when KAT was literally an unstoppable force. The Clippers are going to have a difficult time with Towns tonight, as Jordan is also sitting in this one. All signs are pointing up for KAT tonight, especially after having played just 28 minutes on Saturday when he’s usually around 40. The sky is the limit this evening. Target: 47.5

Montrezl Harrell $5,100 – By no means is this a lock for value, but Harrell has been largely dependable in the absence of Jordan. He missed value last time out against the Jazz, which I attribute more to Gobert than anything. KAT is not the defender Gobert is, and I expect Harrell to nestle back into his 30 minute role. Prior the Jazz game, he had netted point totals of 35, 23, 31, 33, and 22. His usage is there for the time being, so use him while it lasts. Target: 25.5

 

Lineup 1:

PG – Eric Bledsoe $8,200

SG – Khris Middleton $8,700

SF – Josh Richardson $6,300

PF – Blake Griffin $8,600

C – Montrezl Harrell $5,100

G – Jerian Grant $4,900

F – Nemanja Bjelica $3,000

U – Rajon Rondo $5,200

 

Lineup 2:

PG – Milos Teodosic $5,400

SG – Andrew Wiggins $6,100

SF – Wayne Ellington $5,300

PF – Trey Lyles $5,300

C – Karl-Anthony Towns $9,500

G – Alec Burks $3,300

F – Josh Richardson $6,300

U – Damian Lillard $8,800

 

Best of luck everyone. Thanks for reading and appreciate the support. Go make some money!

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Categories: DFS, DFS-Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball, Featured, NBA

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