Buying or Selling The Kansas City Chiefs

Throughout the 2017 NFL season, one of the most entertaining offenses to watch was the Kansas City Chiefs.  Led by a career year from Alex Smith, many of the offensive players had huge fantasy seasons.  According to ffstatistics.com, Alex Smith finished as the QB 3, Kareem Hunt finished as the RB 4, Tyreek Hill finished as the WR 8 and Travis Kelce finished as the TE 1.  Due to this success, these talented weapons are being taken as top 12 options at their positions in dynasty start up drafts.  However, due to some changes the Chiefs made this offseason, it may be time to sell some of these highly touted Chiefs.  Let’s take a look at what offensive weapons we should be buying and selling.  All ADP is based on fantasyfootbalcalculator.com July dynasty ADP

Patrick Mahomes

Current ADP: QB 10

Buying or Selling:   SELLING

I am extremely excited to watch Patrick Mahomes take over this Chiefs offense.  The Chiefs have done an incredible job of surrounding the 2nd year QB with a ton of talent.  However, for Mahomes to be taken as the QB 10 is a bit ridiculous.  The talent is definitely there, but he has only played in one NFL game.  He’s currently being taken before Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford and Marcus Mariota, all of which have put up top 12 seasons.  Again, I really like Mahomes, but I would easily rather have any of those three QBs over Mahomes.  The Chiefs have done a great job surrounding Mahomes with talent, but there is still a chance that Mahomes can bust.  If you drafted Mahomes in your 2017 rookie drafts, you could sell Mahomes for a massive profit, and get a much safer option at QB.

Kareem Hunt

Current ADP: RB 7

Buying or Selling: BUYING

I think this is a very fair value for Kareem Hunt.  He is currently sandwiched right between Alvin Kamara and Leonard Fournette.  At this value, I’d be more than happy to acquire Hunt.  I’m not sure if he has 2017 Todd Gurley upside, but I won’t be shocked if Hunt finishes as a top 3 RB the next few seasons.  Hunt has great weapons surrounding him, which should limit the number of stacked boxes he will face.  Hunt is also working with a inexperienced QB in Patrick Mahomes, which may lead to Hunt setting the pace of the offense and even be a security blanket for Mahomes.  Overall, I believe that Kareem Hunt will match his 275 rush attempts and 50 targets from 2017, and continue to produce as a top 5 RB.

Tyreek Hill

Current ADP: WR 10

Buying or Selling: SELLING

There is no doubt that Tyreek Hill is extremely talented and does some incredible things on the football field. Finishing as the WR 8 in 2017, Hill saw a spike in his targets, receptions and yardage from his 2016 rookie season.  However, I think that we saw Hill’s ceiling in 2017 and he may have been the biggest victim of the Chiefs’ offseason moves.  According to ffstatistics.com, this was the first season since 2009 that an Andy Reid offense supported a top 12 WR.  Reid is known for favoring his running backs and spreading the targets to multiple receivers and tight ends.  Speaking of spreading the ball to different receivers, the Chiefs made a huge splash in free agency by signing Sammy Watkins.  I’ll get more into Watkins in a minute, but I believe that Watkins is going to eat into a significant amount of Hill’s production.  With these things going against Hill, plus having a new QB, I wouldn’t be shocked if Hill finishes outside of the top 24 WRs this year, which would cause a large drop in his dynasty value.

Sammy Watkins

Current ADP: WR 23

Buying or Selling: BUYING

Sammy Watkins is one of those players that dynasty players seem to either love or hate. I know that it can be hard to buy into Watkins, who has finished as a top 24 WR only once in his first 4 seasons in the NFL.  However, I believe that everything is lining up for Watkins to produce as the high level WR he was regarded as coming out of college.  In 2017, Watkins showed us that he is finally healthy and play a full season.  Watkins battled soft tissue injuries and a fractured foot for the majority of his first 3 seasons, which limited his effectiveness when he was on the field.  Now that he is healthy, Watkins looks poised to show off his athleticism and talent.  Unlike in 2017, Watkins is getting a full offseason to learn the Chiefs offense and gain chemistry with Mahomes.  Watkins was traded to the Rams on August 11th last year, only one month before the Rams 1st regular season game.  Watkins was never given adequate time to learn the Rams playbook and gain any sort of chemistry with Jared Goff.  Finally, Watkins got PAID this offseason.  Watkins received a 3-year, $48 million contract.  This makes Watkins the 4th highest paid wide receiver in the NFL, showing that the Chiefs really like Watkins and plan to use him as a WR1.  All of these factors make me believe that Watkins will overtake Tyreek Hill as the WR 1 in Kansas City and can easily finish as a top 18 WR in 2018.

Travis Kelce

Current ADP: TE 1

Buying or Selling: SELLING

There is no doubt that Travis Kelce is one of the most talented tight ends in the NFL.  The main reason for me selling Kelce at this price is the uncertainty of this Chiefs offense.  With the addition of Watkins and Mahomes, I’m not sure that Kelce will receive the volume he has become accustomed to.  During the last 2 seasons, where he finished as the TE 1 overall, Kelce was targeted 117 times and 122 times.  He was Alex Smith’s favorite target in Kansas City, and I’m just not sure if that stays the same.  Also, Kelce has suffered a concussion in each of the last two seasons, which can be expected for a big, physical tight end that sees a lot of targets.  That being said, I still think that Kelce is extremely talented and wouldn’t be shocked if he finishes as a top 3 TE in 2018.  But if I have to choose to buy or sell Kelce based on his ADP of TE1, I’m going to sell him.

About Mike Colaianne

Mike is a recent college graduate, now teaching Physical Education in the Chicagoland area. Growing up as a die-hard Chicago sports fan (except the Cubs), he has always had a passion for sports. As a P.E. teacher with way too much time on his hands, Mike quickly started to gain a new passion, fantasy football. When not teaching, he can be found either coaching lacrosse or watching his Chicago sports teams. Find him on twitter @mike_colaianne

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