DFS Week 4: DRAFT Targets & Players to Avoid

Last week I gave you all the upside you needed with Matt Ryan and Mike Evans. I’ll be helping you navigate this user-friendly and competitive way to play DFS every week this season. My advice is based on 6 team standard fast draft formats.

If you’re not familiar with DRAFT I highly encourage you to jump into your App store or Google Play store and download the most user-friendly and fun DFS app out there. You can try DRAFT by taking advantage of our promo code “Top2”-you’ll get a free $3 entry. My takes are a combination of stats, match-up analysis, and what I’ve seen drafting this week: to draft with me next week add me MattHicks15.

Quarterback

Favorite Play: Drew Brees (NO) vs NYG

I usually refuse to draft quarterbacks before the 5th round of DRAFT; there’s generally too much value late to justify anything earlier. Brees, however, has been going off the board consistently in the 4th round of my drafts this week-and I’m very okay with that. Brees is currently leading the NFL is completion (104) and completion percentage (80.6%), he’s 3rd in passing yards, and has thrown 8 touchdowns and zero interceptions through the first 3 weeks. He’s thrown for more than 350 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2 of those games. The Giants have allowed the 14th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season-and that’s against Blake Bortles, Dak Prescott, and Deshaun Watson. This all adds up to another big week for Brees; making him worth a 4th round pick each and every draft this week.

High Upside: Phillip Rivers (LAC) vs SF

We intentionally took a week off from Rivers against a tough Rams defense but now it’s time to go back to the well (or should I say river….). In his first two weeks of the season, Rivers completed 57 of his 88 attempts for 680 yards, 6 touchdowns, and just 1 interception. Now he squares up against the 49ers who have allowed the 3rd most touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks (8) and the 5th most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks (905) threw the first two weeks. The San Francisco defense is yet to record an interception. Rivers is the 5th round target I’m most comfortable taking, and he’s been available every time for me this week.

Do Not DRAFT: Russell Wilson (SEA) vs ARI

It sounds easy doesn’t it: the iconic Russell Wilson vs a dismal Cardinals defense? It’s too good to be true. Arizona has allowed the 10th least fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, despite facing off against Jared Goff, Mitch Trubisky, and Alex Smith. Those 3 quarterbacks have combined for just 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions combined against Arizona. Wilson isn’t the quarterback we’ve come to rely on either. The current QB16 has yet to throw for more than 300 yards this season and has thrown for less than 250 yards twice. Wilson, however, has always been able to make up for his passing stats with his legs. That’s not the case so far this year: he’s rushed just 7 times for 21 yards and no touchdowns. Wilson is too far off from a top 6 QB for you to even think about drafting him this week.

Running Back

Favorite Play: Saquon Barkley (NYG) vs NO

Disclaimer: Kamara is, once again, the top pick at running back and overall this week. I, however, refuse to write about the same guy over and over again so it’s time to talk Barkley (my RB2 overall this week). Barkley is currently RB4 in PPR formats; he’s rushed for 226 yards and 2 touchdowns in Weeks 1-3. What’s more enticing, though, is his 21 receptions (on 27 targets) for 137 yards. The Saints have shut down opposing running backs so far this season, but they’ve faced: Peyton Barber (RB57), Carlos Hyde (RB10), and the combo of Tevin Coleman (RB18) and Ito Smith (RB60). The Saints will be without CB Patrick Robinson; who seemed to be one of the few players able to slow the barrage against the worst passing defense in the league. Look for Barkley to benefit from a stretched field.

Upside Target: Gio Bernard (CIN) vs ATL

Running backs are going quick this week: on waiver wires, in trades, and especially on DRAFT. If you don’t grab 2 top guys in the first 3 rounds you’ll be digging through potential upside while that clock slowly ticks away and drives you in panic mode. Take a deep breath and take Gio. Bernard came out strong in his first start of the season: rushing for 61 yards and a touchdown on 12 attempts (5.1 yards per carry). Bernard also showed his dual threat upside: catching 5 of 9 targets for 25 yards. Atlanta has given up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks; in large part because they’ve allowed 8 more receptions to opposing running backs than any of defense through Week 3. They’ve allowed 36 receptions and 255 yards-leaving a lot of upside for Gio to capitalize on.

Do Not DRAFT: Kenyan Drake (MIA) vs NE

The upside is there, the match-up is there, and maybe the coaching will be there….maybe. I want to draft Drake, I also want to play him in every season-long league I have him in. I just can’t do it, though, and you shouldn’t either. Although the Pats have allowed the 3rd most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season, they’ve allowed just 1 touchdown in the first 3 weeks. They’ve also allowed just 154 passing yards, and 0 touchdowns to them. Drake saw just 7 total touches in Week 3, and the Dolphins had just 39 offensive plays. Head coach Adam Gase seems more interested in running college style end arounds and wide receiver touchdown passes than feeding his incredibly talented back.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Favorite Play: Michael Thomas (NO) vs NYG

You could make a case for drafting another wideout first this week, but you’d be wrong. Thomas is 3rd in the league in targets (40), 1st in receptions (38), first in catch rate (95%), 1st in receiving yards (398) and 3rd in touchdowns (3). There’s 4 tempting running backs that very well may get taken over Thomas in your drafts (Kamara, Barkley, Zeke, and Gordon) which means you have a great opportunity to snag a huge value when picking at the turn; don’t overthink this one: Thomas is your top pick again this week.

Upside Target: Jarvis Landry (CLE) vs OAK

Landry has been eating the first three weeks: he has 20 receptions on 37 targets for 278 yards. Now, Landry has a new quarterback (Baker Mayfield) who’s much more apt to stretch the field and get the ball to Landry in the endzone. This week Landry pulls the Raiders defense, who has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this season. They’ve allowed 612 yards on 36 receptions and 5 touchdowns-leaving a lot of upside for the top wideout in an offense that’s been recently recharged and had an extra 3 days of rest; coming off a Week 3 Thursday Night Football match-up.

Do Not DRAFT: Deandre Hopkins (HOU) vs IND

Hopkins isn’t a WR1 through Week 3. In fact, Hopkins hasn’t even been the WR1 on his own team since Fuller returned in Week 2. That doesn’t bode well for this popular name when combined with a match-up against the Colts, who have allowed the 2nd least fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far this season. On average, the Colts are allowing just 91 yards and less than a touchdown to opposing wideouts combined per week. Hopkins is a big name, and a big mistake on DRAFT in Week 4.

About Matt Hicks

Matt’s writing at Top2 is focused on dynasty fantasy football. He loves blending his experience writing research in the field of education with fantasy football stats. Matt currently lives in Baltimore, MD and graduated from Eastern Connecticut State University and the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. You can follow Matt on Twitter: @Top2Matt

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