DFS: Week 10 DRAFT Favorite Plays, Upside Picks, & Must Avoids

I’ll be helping you navigate this user-friendly and competitive way to play DFS every week this season. My advice is based on 6 team standard fast draft formats.

If you’re not familiar with DRAFT I highly encourage you to jump into your App store or Google Play store and download the most user-friendly and fun DFS app out there. You can try DRAFT by taking advantage of our promo code “Top2”-you’ll get a free $3 entry. My takes are a combination of stats, match-up analysis, and what I’ve seen drafting this week: to draft with me next week add me MattHicks15.

Quarterback

Favorite Play: Matt Ryan (ATL) vs Cleveland

I’ll start by providing my usual disclaimer: I’m not going to list Pat Mahomes in this slot every week, if you want to draft him over Ryan, go for it. That being said, Ryan is my QB1 overall this week. The Falcons are facing off against the Browns in 3rd highest over/under of the week. Ryan, the QB2 overall on the season, will be attacking a Browns defense in the middle of the pack (18th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks) this season. A passing defense which now may be missing both rookie phenom Dez Ward and Demarious Randall for Week 10. In his last 3 games, Ryan has thrown 7 touchdowns (with just 1 interception) and for 1,084 yards while leading his team back into playoff contention. High scoring game + must win + red hot quarterback = cash for my DRAFT lineups.

High Upside: Phillip Rivers (LAC) vs Oakland

This one is all about the match-up. The Raiders are beat up, embarrassed, and just all around bad this season. The Raiders rank last in the league in pass DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and rank 31st in the league in weighted DVOA (recent play). This game also has a high over/under (49.5), what it also has, however, is the 2nd largest line of the week (10 points); giving the Chargers an implied 30-point total. Yet, I’ve seen Rivers available at the end of my DRAFTs this week-making for serious upside if you’re not willing to take Mahomes or Ryan in the 3rd round (where I’ve seen them both go). Rivers is QB13 overall on the season and had his 3rd best game of the season against Oakland in week 5-when he threw for 339 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Since Week 5, he’s thrown for 6 touchdowns, 741 yards, and just 1 interception.

Do Not DRAFT:  Jared Goff (LAR) vs Seattle

This is a tough one to turn away from: a 50 point over/under combined with a top 5 quarterback coming off his best game of the season. Yet, that’s exactly what you need to do. The Seahawks have been great against opposing quarterbacks this season; and when I say great, I mean: the best. They’ve allowed the least fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season; an average of just 13.5 per game. Opposing quarterbacks have put up just 1,678 yards (210 yards per game) against them-second lowest in the league. They’ve allowed the 6th least touchdowns (12) and have the 6th most interceptions (10) on the season: an almost even touchdown to interception ratio. Th Seahawks rank 5th in DVOA, 4th in weighted DVOA, and 5 in passing defense, according to Football Outsiders.

Running Back: Favorite Play: Kareem Hunt (KC) vs Arizona

This one is tough: there’s 5 legitimate choices if you’re the top pick this week. You could go for Gurley (the easy pick), Barkley (such a tempting match-up, on paper), Gordon (the Raiders are so, so bad…), Kamara (explosive player in the biggest over/under of the week) or you could come to the decision I have: the answer is Hunt. Hunt, the RB6 in PPR, is red hot: totaling 307 rushing yards, 246 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns over the last 4 weeks. Combine this with his juice (very juicy) match-up: against an Arizona team that’s allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. That includes: the 4th most rushing yards against (1057) and 3rd most rushing touchdowns; giving Hunt all the upside he needs. Still, I have one more reason to take him over the temptation that is Todd: the Chiefs have the highest implied total of the week: with a 16.5 point spread on a 49.5 over/under; an implied total of 33.

Upside Target: Duke Johnson (CLE) vs Atlanta

Week 9 saw the revitalization of Duke Johnson’s fantasy value. Freed from the offensive burden which was Hue Jackson, Johnson saw his 3rd highest number of snaps and 3rd highest snap share of the season. He also recorded season highs in: targets, receptions (caught all 9 of his targets), receiving yards (78), and touchdowns (2, compared to just 1 in the first 8 weeks). This isn’t chasing last week’s points, though, this is looking forward to a fantastic week 10 match-up. Atlanta has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. This, however, is much better for Duke than it is Chubb. They’ve allowed the most receptions to running backs (68) and the 4th most receiving yards (515). Duke is projected below 10 points on DRAFT, which is ridiculous and buries him well below sight for 6 team drafts. If you don’t get both running backs in the first 3 rounds, wait it out and grab Duke in the 5th round.

Do Not DRAFT: Ezekiel Elliot (DAL) vs Philadelphia

Zeke is bogged down in fantasy mediocracy this season; something that may be okay for your season-long leagues but is absolutely not okay for DRAFT. He hasn’t scored a touchdown or broke 100 yards since Week 6. Since Week 5, he’s averaging just 63.5 rushing yards per game, and 25 receiving yards per game. This game has the second lowest under/over of the week, and Dallas has an implied total of 18. Combine these factors with the fact Zeke is going early second round, and you’re setting yourself for a major disappoint during Sunday Night Football.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Favorite Play: Julio Jones (ATL) vs Cleveland

I got into the match-up in detail under Matt Ryan, but I couldn’t resist pointing out this big-time stack play. Julio Jones is coming off a liberating week; where he finally found the endzone and gets to play a team that’s given up the second most touchdowns to opposing wideouts over the last 4 weeks. Here’s the thing, though: Jones doesn’t need to find the endzone to perform. He’s wracked up over 100 receiving yards in 5 of his 8 games this season; including 4 of his last 5 games. Jones also has at least 9 targets in his last 5 games and has at least 9 receptions in 4 of those 5 games. If you get caught with the 6th spot (the worst position to pick this week), don’t try to chase running back points: pivot to Jones, stack him with Ryan, and reap points.

Upside Target: Keenan Allen (LAC) vs Oakland

Consider Allen and Rivers to be a cheaper, just as rewarding, version of Ryan-Jones this week. Allen has struggled this season, making his perceived value cheap, but he broke out last week. Allen caught 6 of his 10 targets for 124 yards-his best game since Week 1. What Allen did in Week 1, that he hasn’t since, is find the endzone: that’s right we’re literally looking at a parallel between Allen and Jones here. Now let’s throw this into the mix: Oakland has allowed the 5th most touchdowns to wideouts this season and the 4th most over the last 4 weeks. Wait one more factor (and no, not the match-up, see Rivers above for that argument): Allen’s Week 9 mini-breakout was against the Seahawks…yes the same Seahawks defense that I told you has shutdown passing games (see avoiding Jared Goff). Keenan Allen couldn’t be any more set-up to take you to fantasy glory this week…and he’s cheap! Grab Allen in the 3rd, or maybe even 4th, and his value will do wonders for your DRAFT bankroll.

Do Not DRAFT: Robert Woods (LAR) vs Seattle

If you’re still playing Robert Woods to in DRAFT, you’re living in Week 6. Since Week 5, Woods has finished below Cooks twice, and finished below Kupp in Week 9 (his first week back). He’s failed to break the 100-yard mark and hasn’t found the endzone. I mentioned above why Goff should be avoided, and that goes double for Woods: who is not only competing against a defense that’s shutdown passing attacks; he’s competing with his own teammates (and losing). Season long leagues: sure, other DFS formats: maybe, DRAFT: not a chance he returns value.

About Matt Hicks

Matt’s writing at Top2 is focused on dynasty fantasy football. He loves blending his experience writing research in the field of education with fantasy football stats. Matt currently lives in Baltimore, MD and graduated from Eastern Connecticut State University and the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. You can follow Matt on Twitter: @Top2Matt

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